Modeling the Health Effects of Expanding e-Cigarette Sales in the United States and United Kingdom: A Monte Carlo Analysis

JAMA Internal Medicine
Sara Kalkhoran, Stanton A Glantz

Abstract

The prevalence of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use is increasing. Population health effects will depend on cigarette smoking behaviors, levels of dual use with conventional cigarettes, and e-cigarette toxicity. To evaluate potential health effects of various scenarios of increasing promotion and use of e-cigarettes. A base case model was developed using data on actual cigarette and e-cigarette use patterns that quantifies transitions from an initial state of no cigarette or e-cigarette use to 1 of 5 final states: never use of cigarettes or e-cigarettes, cigarette use, e-cigarette use, dual use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes, or quit. Seven scenarios were created that cover a range of use patterns, depending on how the e-cigarette market might develop, as well as a range of possible long-term health effects of e-cigarette use. Scenarios for changes from the base case were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. Separate sets of base case model parameters were evaluated for the US and UK populations. We assigned unitless health "costs" for each final state on a scale of 0 to 100. Population health "costs" were compared with the base case (status quo) assuming e-cigarette use health "costs" from 1% to 50% as dangerous as co...Continue Reading

Citations

Jan 19, 2016·The Lancet. Respiratory Medicine·Sara Kalkhoran, Stanton A Glantz
Oct 29, 2015·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Theodore L WagenerTerry F Pechacek
Jun 25, 2016·Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Clinics of North America·Scott E Hadland, Leslie Renee Walker
May 3, 2016·The Lancet. Respiratory Medicine·Sara Kalkhoran, Stanton A Glantz
Sep 11, 2016·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·David T LevyDavid B Abrams
Mar 24, 2017·Nature Reviews. Cardiology·Neal L Benowitz, Joseph B Fraiman
Apr 4, 2017·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Violeta ChaconJoaquin Barnoya
Jan 13, 2018·Annual Review of Public Health·Stanton A Glantz, David W Bareham
Apr 5, 2018·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Kenneth E Warner, David Mendez
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Oct 4, 2017·Tobacco Control·David T LevyDavid B Abrams
Feb 23, 2019·Epidemiology·Frederieke S Petrović-van der DeenTony Blakely
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Jun 5, 2020·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Peter N LeeRolf Weitkunat
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Jan 14, 2017·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Stanton A Glantz
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