Modeling the national pediatric vaccine stockpile: supply shortages, health impacts and cost consequences

Vaccine
Sundar S ShresthaMartin I Meltzer

Abstract

Pediatric vaccine stockpiles have been in place in the U.S. since 1983 to address the potential disruption in supply of routine pediatric vaccines. Increases in the number of vaccines recommended for pediatric and adolescent patients have increased the cost of stocking and maintaining the stockpile. Based on a spreadsheet-based model (VacStockpile) we developed, we estimated potential supply shortages of 14 stockpiled vaccines as of August 1, 2008 and its health and financial impacts under various shortage and stockpile scenarios. To illustrate the implications of policy options, we compared "high" to "low" stockpile scenarios. The high stockpile scenario ensures a 6-month vaccine supply to vaccinate all children according to recommended schedules. The low scenario comprised of 50% of the high scenario or existing stocks, whichever is smaller. For each vaccine, we used a weighted average of five shortage scenarios ranging from 0% to 100%, in 25% increments. Demand for each vaccine was based on current distribution or birth cohort size. The probabilities of shortages were based on number of manufacturers, market stability, history of manufacturing problems, and production complexity. CDC contract prices were used to estimate cos...Continue Reading

References

Feb 1, 2006·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Lance E RodewaldStephen L Cochi
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Citations

Nov 28, 2012·Expert Review of Vaccines·Sheldon H Jacobson
Aug 10, 2012·Vaccine·Van-Anh Truong
Oct 4, 2017·American Journal of Health-system Pharmacy : AJHP : Official Journal of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists·Victoria C ZiesenitzLarissa S May
Feb 3, 2012·Public Health Reports·Kimberly M ThompsonSteven G F Wassilak
Aug 12, 2014·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Kimberly M Thompson, Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens

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