Modeling the risks of nonindigenous species introductions using a patch-dynamics approach incorporating contaminant effects as a disturbance

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Andrew M DeinesWayne G Landis

Abstract

The establishment and spread of invasive or nonindigenous species has caused concern from stakeholders in affected areas, and has prompted many field and modeling studies. We used stochastic two species, circular three patch dynamic models to investigate the patterns of invasion and impacts upon the affected species. Both persistent and degradable toxicants were incorporated as parts of the model system to act as disturbance regimens. There is a clear series of patterns that result from these simulations. Competition increases population variability, but decreases the number of distinct outcomes possible from the same initial conditions. Isolation of the patch of the introduction was the main determinant of successful establishment through a process we call the beachhead effect. Coexistence of species was often possible in local patches, contrary to the analytical solutions of Lotka-Volterra equations and numerous modeling studies. Contaminants and their resultant disturbances are important as contributors to the stochastic nature of models. The stochasticity leads to a variety of outcomes from some sets of initial conditions. Different outcomes have different probabilities of occurrence and are dependent upon the specific init...Continue Reading

References

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Sep 11, 2004·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Wayne G Landis
Sep 11, 2004·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Lynn A Maguire
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Sep 11, 2004·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Alexei A Sharov
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Citations

Apr 5, 2012·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·M G MacklinJ C Woodward
May 22, 2010·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Wayne G Landis, Mark C Andersen
Apr 8, 2015·Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management·Carlie E HerringWayne G Landis

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