DOI: https://doi.org/10.1115/detc1995-0172Mar 5, 2021Proceedings Paper

Modeling Uncertainty in Preliminary Design: A Short Review

A. C. ButlerS. R. LeClair

Abstract

Several mathematical theories exist for modeling uncertainty, and this paper explores the use of three different techniques for modeling judgment in preliminary engineering design. The relative advantages and disadvantages of each theory are discussed from an applied perspective based on experience with prototype systems. These techniques include the Dempster-Shafer theory, Bayesian Belief Networks, and Fuzzy Systems. Additionally, the relative merits and limitations of each technique are discussed in a qualitative manner drawing on experience gained with each model. Conclusions are drawn about the effectiveness of these techniques for representing uncertainty in preliminary engineering design.

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