PMID: 11934037Apr 6, 2002Paper

Modelling bacterial growth in quantitative microbiological risk assessment: is it possible?

International Journal of Food Microbiology
Maarten J Nauta

Abstract

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), predictive modelling and HACCP may be used as tools to increase food safety and can be integrated fruitfully for many purposes. However, when QMRA is applied for public health issues like the evaluation of the status of public health, existing predictive models may not be suited to model bacterial growth. In this context, precise quantification of risks is more important than in the context of food manufacturing alone. In this paper, the modular process risk model (MPRM) is briefly introduced as a QMRA modelling framework. This framework can be used to model the transmission of pathogens through any food pathway, by assigning one of six basic processes (modules) to each of the processing steps. Bacterial growth is one of these basic processes. For QMRA, models of bacterial growth need to be expressed in terms of probability, for example to predict the probability that a critical concentration is reached within a certain amount of time. In contrast, available predictive models are developed and validated to produce point estimates of population sizes and therefore do not fit with this requirement. Recent experience from a European risk assessment project is discussed to illust...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 12, 2004·International Journal of Food Microbiology·P R ShortenT K Soboleva
Sep 12, 2002·International Journal of Food Microbiology·T A McMeekin, T Ross
Apr 23, 2003·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Maarten J NautaFrédéric Carlin
Nov 5, 2013·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Alexandra Lianou, Konstantinos P Koutsoumanis
May 27, 2015·Pathogens·Flor Yazmín Ramírez-CastilloAlma Lilián Guerrero-Barrera
Apr 12, 2015·International Journal of Food Microbiology·C Plaza-RodríguezM Filter
Jul 29, 2011·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Alexandra Lianou, Konstantinos P Koutsoumanis
Feb 15, 2011·Food Microbiology·S JaloustreM L Delignette-Muller
Jan 15, 2010·International Journal of Food Microbiology·J H SmidA H Havelaar
Feb 24, 2009·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Helen E CloughNigel P French
Sep 9, 2008·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Radovan GospavicNasimul Haque
Jul 19, 2005·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Arnout R H FischerMaarten J Nauta
Mar 25, 2005·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Maarten NautaArie Havelaar
Oct 26, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Maarten J NautaArie H Havelaar
Apr 19, 2008·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Isabelle AlbertJudith Rousseau
Aug 24, 2007·Journal of Applied Microbiology·M RitzA H Havelaar
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Sep 14, 2013·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Jeff DaelmanMieke Uyttendaele
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Oct 21, 2016·International Journal of Food Microbiology·Ronny HedellMats Gunnar Andersson
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Nov 5, 2019·Frontiers in Microbiology·Kento KoyamaKonstantinos Koutsoumanis
Sep 30, 2004·Journal of Food Protection·Suzanne J C van Gerwen, Leon G M Gorris

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