Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change

Global Change Biology
Beth CraseBrendan A Wintle

Abstract

Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 18, 2016·Scientific Reports·Swapan K SarkerJason Matthiopoulos
Nov 6, 2018·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·April E ResideRobert L Pressey
Mar 20, 2019·Global Change Biology·Tom R BishopMark P Robertson

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