Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium

Human Ecology: an Interdisciplinary Journal
Elena XoplakiAdam Izdebski

Abstract

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095-1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260-1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580-1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

References

Aug 31, 2002·Science·Michael E Mann
Nov 26, 2015·Science Advances·Edward R CookChristian Zang
Sep 1, 2017·Scientific Reports·Eduardo Moreno-ChamarroJohann H Jungclaus
Mar 14, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·John HaldonNeil Roberts
Mar 16, 2016·Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR·Benjamin I CookEdward R Cook

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Citations

Oct 7, 2018·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·Stefan BrönnimannKuan-Hui Elaine Lin
Jul 12, 2019·Scientific Reports·Nazzareno DiodatoGianni Bellocchi
Jul 13, 2018·Human Ecology: an Interdisciplinary Journal·Adam IzdebskiSam White
Mar 26, 2021·Nature·Dagomar DegrootNatale Zappia
Sep 29, 2020·Euro-Mediterranean Journal for Environmental Integration·J LuterbacherN Khelifi
Jul 21, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Bao YangNils Chr Stenseth

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
environmental stress
environmental stresses

Software Mentioned

CCSM4
OM
MPI
ESM

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