Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe.

Scientific Reports
Mikhail A Semenov, Peter R Shewry

Abstract

New crop cultivars will be required for a changing climate characterised by increased summer drought and heat stress in Europe. However, the uncertainty in climate predictions poses a challenge to crop scientists and breeders who have limited time and resources and must select the most appropriate traits for improvement. Modelling is a powerful tool to quantify future threats to crops and hence identify targets for improvement. We have used a wheat simulation model combined with local-scale climate scenarios to predict impacts of heat stress and drought on winter wheat in Europe. Despite the lower summer precipitation projected for 2050s across Europe, relative yield losses from drought is predicted to be smaller in the future, because wheat will mature earlier avoiding severe drought. By contrast, the risk of heat stress around flowering will increase, potentially resulting in substantial yield losses for heat sensitive cultivars commonly grown in northern Europe.

References

Jan 26, 2006·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·John R Porter, Mikhail A Semenov
Sep 1, 2007·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·J R WitcombeK A Steele
Aug 7, 2008·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Mikhail A Semenov
Sep 1, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Wolfram Schlenker, Michael J Roberts

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Citations

Dec 7, 2014·Plant Science : an International Journal of Experimental Plant Biology·Xiao WangBernd Wollenweber
Mar 19, 2013·Global Change Biology·Ed HawkinsTom M Osborne
Mar 29, 2013·Plant, Cell & Environment·John R Porter, Svend Christensen
Jul 13, 2013·The New Phytologist·Charis CookRuth Bastow
Nov 22, 2013·Global Change Biology·Bing LiuSenthold Asseng
Nov 19, 2015·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Miroslav TrnkaMikhail A Semenov
Mar 10, 2015·Journal of Experimental Botany·Pierre Stratonovitch, Mikhail A Semenov
Jun 5, 2014·Agricultural and Forest Meteorology·N M J CroutM Semenov
Sep 13, 2016·Scientific Reports·Guoyong LengL Ruby Leung
Nov 22, 2016·International Journal of Molecular Sciences·He TianGuanghou Shui
Mar 9, 2017·Global Change Biology·Livia PaleariRoberto Confalonieri
Mar 16, 2019·Frontiers in Plant Science·Eva RosenqvistRick van de Zedde
Apr 25, 2018·Nature Communications·Tamara Ben-AriDavid Makowski
Feb 13, 2020·PloS One·Lee HannahArnout van Soesbergen
Sep 10, 2020·Frontiers in Plant Science·Malcolm John Hawkesford, Andrew B Riche
Nov 27, 2018·Journal of Experimental Botany·Xiaoming WangShengbao Xu
May 2, 2018·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Iain Brown
Dec 26, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Helena KahiluotoMirek Trnka
Apr 20, 2019·Scientific Reports·Stephen P Cohen, Jan E Leach
Apr 10, 2018·Environmental Sciences Europe·Maximilian StrerAntje Herrmann
Apr 1, 2012·Functional Plant Biology : FPB·Gautam P PradhanBikram S Gill
Jun 16, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·John W G AddyAndrew Mead
Jun 22, 2021·Royal Society Open Science·Thibaut PutelatMikhail A Semenov

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
environmental stress

Software Mentioned

HadRM3
MAS
LARS
Sirius
WG

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