Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Malaria Journal
Theresa ReikerThomas A Smith

Abstract

As areas move closer to malaria elimination, a combination of limited resources and increasing heterogeneity in case distribution and transmission favour a shift to targeted reactive interventions. Reactive case detection (RCD), the following up of additional individuals surrounding an index case, has the potential to target transmission pockets and identify asymptomatic cases in them. Current RCD implementation strategies vary, and it is unclear which are most effective in achieving elimination. OpenMalaria, an established individual-based stochastic model, was used to simulate RCD in a Zambia-like setting. The capacity to follow up index cases, the search radius, the initial transmission and the case management coverage were varied. Suitable settings were identified and probabilities of elimination and time to elimination estimated. The value of routinely collected prevalence and incidence data for predicting the success of RCD was assessed. The results indicate that RCD with the aim of transmission interruption is only appropriate in settings where initial transmission is very low (annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) 1-2 or prevalence approx. < 7-19% depending on case management levels). Every index case needs to be ...Continue Reading

References

Jan 19, 2008·Clinical Microbiology Reviews·Clinton K MurrayR Scott Miller
Jan 6, 2012·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Nakul ChitnisThomas Smith
Jul 16, 2013·PLoS Medicine·Hugh J W SturrockRoly D Gosling
Oct 21, 2014·Nature Reviews. Microbiology·Teun BousemaChris Drakeley
Aug 4, 2019·Malaria Journal·Nakul ChitnisThomas A Smith

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Citations

Dec 7, 2019·Malaria Journal·Thomas A SmithNakul Chitnis
Sep 16, 2020·Malaria Journal·Katya GalactionovaMelissa A Penny
Mar 3, 2021·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Yangyang Shi, Hongyong Zhao
Mar 16, 2021·Frontiers in Public Health·Fatou JaitehKoen Peeters Grietens
Apr 27, 2020·Lancet·Manuel W Hetzel, Nakul Chitnis

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
MDA

Software Mentioned

OpenMalaria
LOESS
mlr
randomForestSCR
randomForestSRC
R

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