Modelling scenarios of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Canada

Canada Communicable Disease Report = Relevé Des Maladies Transmissibles Au Canada
Nick H OgdenJianhong Wu

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), likely a bat-origin coronavirus, spilled over from wildlife to humans in China in late 2019, manifesting as a respiratory disease. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread initially within China and then globally, resulting in a pandemic. This article describes predictive modelling of COVID-19 in general, and efforts within the Public Health Agency of Canada to model the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian population to support public health decisions. The broad objectives of two modelling approaches, 1) an agent-based model and 2) a deterministic compartmental model, are described and a synopsis of studies is illustrated using a model developed in Analytica 5.3 software. Without intervention, more than 70% of the Canadian population may become infected. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, applied with an intensity insufficient to cause the epidemic to die out, reduce the attack rate to 50% or less, and the epidemic is longer with a lower peak. If NPIs are lifted early, the epidemic may rebound, resulting in high percentages (more than 70%) of the population affected. If NPIs are applied with intensity high enoug...Continue Reading

Citations

Jun 3, 2021·JMIRx Med·Eduardo Atem De Carvalho, Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
Jun 22, 2021·Applied Network Science·Xiaoye DingReihaneh Rabbany
Oct 30, 2021··Yue CuiZiwei Wang

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