Modelling the global spread of diseases: A review of current practice and capability

Epidemics
Caroline E WaltersI M Hall

Abstract

Mathematical models can aid in the understanding of the risks associated with the global spread of infectious diseases. To assess the current state of mathematical models for the global spread of infectious diseases, we reviewed the literature highlighting common approaches and good practice, and identifying research gaps. We followed a scoping study method and extracted information from 78 records on: modelling approaches; input data (epidemiological, population, and travel) for model parameterization; model validation data. We found that most epidemiological data come from published journal articles, population data come from a wide range of sources, and travel data mainly come from statistics or surveys, or commercial datasets. The use of commercial datasets may benefit the modeller, however makes critical appraisal of their model by other researchers more difficult. We found a minority of records (26) validated their model. We posit that this may be a result of pandemics, or far-reaching epidemics, being relatively rare events compared with other modelled physical phenomena (e.g. climate change). The sparsity of such events, and changes in outbreak recording, may make identifying suitable validation data difficult. We appre...Continue Reading

Citations

Dec 14, 2019·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Alheli Flores-FerrerSébastien Gourbière
Sep 29, 2020·Frontiers in Public Health·Paolo Giudici, Emanuela Raffinetti
Dec 12, 2020·Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology : Official Publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, & Immunology·Melike YildirimPinar Keskinocak
Aug 30, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Assaf HochmanHagai Levine
Mar 22, 2021·Methods : a Companion to Methods in Enzymology·Jeanne M FairWilliam Rosenberger
Apr 27, 2021·Infectious Disease Modelling·D LanteriB Cacopardo
May 12, 2021·Statistics in Medicine·Arianna AgostoAndrea Renda
Jun 30, 2021·Nature Human Behaviour·Jamie BedsonBenjamin M Althouse
Jun 22, 2021·Journal of Healthcare Informatics Research·Nitin KamraYan Liu
Aug 4, 2021·Journal of Theoretical Biology·W WaitesV Danos
Apr 29, 2021·The Indian Journal of Medical Research·Jasbir Singh BediSukhadeo B Barbuddhe

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