Modelling the impact of a national scale-up of interventions on hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland

Addiction
Hannah FraserPeter Vickerman

Abstract

To reduce hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID), Scottish Government-funded national strategies, launched in 2008, promoted scaling-up opioid substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe provision (NSP), with some increases in HCV treatment. We test whether observed decreases in HCV incidence post-2008 can be attributed to this intervention scale-up. A dynamic HCV transmission model among PWID incorporating intervention scale-up and observed decreases in behavioural risk, calibrated to Scottish HCV prevalence and incidence data for 2008/09. Scotland, UK. PWID. Model projections from 2008 to 2015 were compared with data to test whether they were consistent with observed decreases in HCV incidence among PWID while incorporating the observed intervention scale-up, and to determine the impact of scaling-up interventions on incidence. Without fitting to epidemiological data post-2008/09, the model incorporating observed intervention scale-up agreed with observed decreases in HCV incidence among PWID between 2008 and 2015, suggesting that HCV incidence decreased by 61.3% [95% credibility interval (CrI) = 45.1-75.3%] from 14.2/100 person-years (py) (9.0-20.7) to 5.5/100 py (2.9-9.2). On average...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 28, 2020·The International Journal on Drug Policy·Lucy Thi TranLouisa Degenhardt
Jun 10, 2021·Hepatology : Official Journal of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases·Aaron G LimPeter Vickerman
Nov 19, 2021·Epidemiologic Reviews·Magdalena CerdáKatherine M Keyes

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