Modelling the impact of relaxing COVID-19 control measures during a period of low viral transmission.

The Medical Journal of Australia
Nick ScottMargaret E Hellard

Abstract

To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission. Network-based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent-based model, Covasim. The model was calibrated for a baseline scenario reflecting the epidemiological and policy environment in Victoria during March-May 2020, a period of low community viral transmission. Policy changes for easing COVID-19-related restrictions from May 2020 were simulated in the context of interventions that included testing, contact tracing (including with a smartphone app), and quarantine. Increase in detected COVID-19 cases following relaxation of restrictions. Policy changes that facilitate contact of individuals with large numbers of unknown people (eg, opening bars, increased public transport use) were associated with the greatest risk of COVID-19 case numbers increasing; changes leading to smaller, structured gatherings with known contacts (eg, small social gatherings, opening schools) were associated with lower risks. In our model, the rise in case numbers following some...Continue Reading

References

Mar 28, 2020·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Joel R KooBorame L Dickens
May 10, 2020·The Medical Journal of Australia·Gregory J FoxEmma McBryde
Jul 23, 2020·Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health·Adeshina AdekunleEmma McBryde
Aug 14, 2020·ELife·David J PriceJames M McCaw
Mar 23, 2020·MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences·George J Milne, S. Xie

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Citations

Jul 9, 2021·Diabetic Medicine : a Journal of the British Diabetic Association·Megan A S PennoUNKNOWN ENDIA Study Group
Oct 16, 2021·The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry·Brian O'DonoghuePatrick McGorry
Nov 3, 2021·Nature Communications·James M TrauerRomain Ragonnet

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Software Mentioned

COVIDSafe
Covasim

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