Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of a diffusion model for the assessment of halogen gas exposure during dosing of brominators

American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal
W D Shade, Michael Jayjock

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulation was incorporated into a diffusion-based exposure assessment model for the estimation of worker exposure to halogen gases during dosing of 500-lb sacks of a bromine-based biocide (BCDMH) into brominators. Indoor and outdoor dosing scenarios were modeled for small and large brominators. The diffusion model used describes a concentration gradient of halogen as a function of distance and time from the source instead of ascribing worst-case single point value estimates to the variables used in the diffusion model. Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe a distribution of values for each appropriate model variable. Using a personal computer and Monte Carlo simulation software, 10,000 iterations of the diffusion model were performed for four different dosing scenarios using random and independent samples from the distributions entered. The corresponding output distributions of predicted exposures were then calculated and displayed graphically for each scenario. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation predict that outdoor dosing of either small or large brominators with BCDMH is highly unlikely to result in an exceedance of the working occupational exposure limit for total halogen. In most ambient wind spee...Continue Reading

Citations

Mar 28, 2009·Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene·Monika VadaliJohn Mulhausen
Apr 15, 2000·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·K P BrandJ S Evans
Jul 28, 2019·Environmental Science & Technology·Tracy L ZontekBurton R Ogle

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