Morbid obesity in the UK: A modelling projection study to 2035

Scandinavian Journal of Public Health
Laura KeaverLaura Webber

Abstract

Morbid obesity (body mass index ⩾40 kg/m2) carries a higher risk of non-communicable disease and is associated with more complex health issues and challenges than obesity body mass index ≥30kg/m2 and <40kg/m2, resulting in much higher financial implications for health systems. Although obesity trends have previously been projected to 2035, these projections do not separate morbid obesity from obesity. This study therefore complements these projections and looks at the prevalence and development of morbid obesity in the UK. Individual level body mass index data for people aged >15 years in England, Wales (2004-2014) and Scotland (2008-2014) were collated from national surveys and stratified by sex and five-year age groups (e.g. 15-19 years), then aggregated to calculate the annual distribution of healthy weight, overweight, obesity and morbid obesity for each age and sex group. A categorical multi-variate non-linear regression model was fitted to these distributions to project trends to 2035. The prevalence of morbid obesity was predicted to increase to 5, 8 and 11% in Scotland, England and Wales, respectively, by 2035. Welsh women aged 55-64 years had the highest projected prevalence of 20%. In total, almost five million people...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 20, 2019·Biological Research for Nursing·Jamie RobinsonJeanne Salyer
Sep 26, 2019·Transplant International : Official Journal of the European Society for Organ Transplantation·Adnan Sharif
Feb 6, 2020·Obesity Reviews : an Official Journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity·Kath WilliamsonMichael Lean
Oct 21, 2020·Pharmacological Research : the Official Journal of the Italian Pharmacological Society·Rafael GenarioHeitor O Santos
Jun 23, 2021·Anaesthesia·M ShawUNKNOWN Pan-London Peri-operative Audit and Research Network
Oct 29, 2020·Journal of Clinical Densitometry : the Official Journal of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry·Marise CrivelliFlávia F Bezerra

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