Multiobjective Calibration of Disease Simulation Models Using Gaussian Processes

Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Aditya SaiNan Kong

Abstract

Background. Developing efficient procedures of model calibration, which entails matching model predictions to observed outcomes, has gained increasing attention. With faithful but complex simulation models established for cancer diseases, key parameters of cancer natural history can be investigated for possible fits, which can subsequently inform optimal prevention and treatment strategies. When multiple calibration targets exist, one approach to identifying optimal parameters relies on the Pareto frontier. However, computational burdens associated with higher-dimensional parameter spaces require a metamodeling approach. The goal of this work is to explore multiobjective calibration using Gaussian process regression (GPR) with an eye toward how multiple goodness-of-fit (GOF) criteria identify Pareto-optimal parameters. Methods. We applied GPR, a metamodeling technique, to estimate colorectal cancer (CRC)-related prevalence rates simulated from a microsimulation model of CRC natural history, known as the Colon Modeling Open Source Tool (CMOST). We embedded GPR metamodels within a Pareto optimization framework to identify best-fitting parameters for age-, adenoma-, and adenoma staging-dependent transition probabilities and risk f...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 9, 2021·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Tiago M de CarvalhoVeerle M H Coupé

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Software Mentioned

Windows 10
gamultiobj
Colon Modeling Open Tool
CMOST
GPR
Colon Modeling Open Source Tool ( CMOST )
MATLAB

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