Multiple Epidemic Wave Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling Study

Journal of Medical Internet Research
E. Kaxiras, Georgios Neofotistos

Abstract

Intervention measures have been implemented around the world to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding the dynamics of the disease spread and the effectiveness of the interventions is essential in predicting its future evolution. The aim of this study is to simulate the effect of different social distancing interventions and investigate whether their timing and stringency can lead to multiple waves (subepidemics), which can provide a better fit to the wavy behavior observed in the infected population curve in the majority of countries. We have designed and run agent-based simulations and a multiple wave model to fit the infected population data for many countries. We have also developed a novel Pandemic Response Index to provide a quantitative and objective way of ranking countries according to their COVID-19 response performance. We have analyzed data from 18 countries based on the multiple wave (subepidemics) hypothesis and present the relevant parameters. Multiple waves have been identified and were found to describe the data better. The effectiveness of intervention measures can be inferred by the peak intensities of the waves. Countries imposing fast and stringent interventions ex...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 28, 2020·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Lei QinChengcheng Liu
Feb 16, 2021·Applied Animal Behaviour Science·Irene CamerlinkBelinda Vigors
Mar 23, 2021·JMIR Medical Informatics·Alessio StaffiniThomas Svensson
Apr 13, 2021·Clinical Immunology : the Official Journal of the Clinical Immunology Society·Eleni GavriilakiAchilles Anagnostopoulos
May 4, 2021·Zeitschrift für Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health·Kerri L Sowers, Mary Lou Galantino
May 12, 2021·BMJ Health & Care Informatics·Prem Rajendra WardeBhavarth Shukla
May 14, 2021·Clinical Microbiology Reviews·Seyed Hamid Safiabadi TaliSana Jahanshahi-Anbuhi

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