Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Franziska PiontekHans Joachim Schellnhuber

Abstract

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 23, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Brenden JongmanPhilip J Ward
Dec 18, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jacob SchewePavel Kabat
Dec 18, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Cynthia RosenzweigJames W Jones
Dec 19, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Hans Joachim SchellnhuberPavel Kabat
Oct 20, 2017·Nature Ecology & Evolution·Julia L BlanchardSimon Jennings
Nov 2, 2017·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Felipe J Colón-GonzálezIain R Lake
Aug 24, 2017·Global Change Biology·Richard S CottrellJulia L Blanchard
May 10, 2019·Scientific Data·Christoph MüllerHong Yang
Feb 18, 2015·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·David J Rogers
May 2, 2018·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Andy J ChallinorDave Frame
May 31, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Felipe J Colón-GonzálezIain R Lake
Jun 13, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Heike K LotzeBoris Worm
Jul 26, 2017·Scientific Reports·Ali MehranJakin K Ravalico

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