MySurgeryRisk: Development and Validation of a Machine-learning Risk Algorithm for Major Complications and Death After Surgery

Annals of Surgery
Azra BihoracPetar Momcilovic

Abstract

To accurately calculate the risk for postoperative complications and death after surgery in the preoperative period using machine-learning modeling of clinical data. Postoperative complications cause a 2-fold increase in the 30-day mortality and cost, and are associated with long-term consequences. The ability to precisely forecast the risk for major complications before surgery is limited. In a single-center cohort of 51,457 surgical patients undergoing major inpatient surgery, we have developed and validated an automated analytics framework for a preoperative risk algorithm (MySurgeryRisk) that uses existing clinical data in electronic health records to forecast patient-level probabilistic risk scores for 8 major postoperative complications (acute kidney injury, sepsis, venous thromboembolism, intensive care unit admission >48 hours, mechanical ventilation >48 hours, wound, neurologic, and cardiovascular complications) and death up to 24 months after surgery. We used the area under the receiver characteristic curve (AUC) and predictiveness curves to evaluate model performance. MySurgeryRisk calculates probabilistic risk scores for 8 postoperative complications with AUC values ranging between 0.82 and 0.94 [99% confidence inte...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 14, 2019·Current Opinion in Anaesthesiology·Parisa RashidiPatrick J Tighe
Dec 12, 2019·JAMA Surgery·Tyler J LoftusAzra Bihorac
Apr 3, 2020·International Journal of Epidemiology·Sherri Rose
Sep 25, 2020·Diseases of the Colon and Rectum·Lydia MaurerHaytham Kaafarani
Dec 25, 2019·Nature Reviews. Nephrology·Parisa Rashidi, Azra Bihorac
Jul 28, 2020·European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery : Official Publication of the European Trauma Society·Lara RimmerMohamad Bashir
Sep 14, 2019·Seminars in Nephrology·Heather Walker, Samira Bell
Oct 30, 2020·Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence·Tyler J LoftusAzra Bihorac
Jan 17, 2021·The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery·Camille L Hancock Friesen
Feb 18, 2021·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Alan H MorrisDonald Berwick
Feb 25, 2021·JAMA Surgery·Crystal N Johnson-MannAzra Bihorac
Mar 22, 2021·The Journal of Surgical Research·Majed El HechiHaytham M Kaafarani
Mar 31, 2021·JAMA Network Open·Seshadri C Mudumbai, Parisa Rashidi
Apr 14, 2021·The Journal of Surgical Research·Omar ElfanagelyJohn P Fischer
Apr 12, 2021·Journal of Pediatric Surgery·Niti ShahiSteven L Moulton
Apr 16, 2021·The Spine Journal : Official Journal of the North American Spine Society·Aditya V KarhadeMichael E Porter
Oct 8, 2020·Current Opinion in Critical Care·Greet De VliegerGeert Meyfroidt
Mar 15, 2021·Journal of Visceral Surgery·G GorincourV Thomson
Dec 19, 2020·Surgery·Meghan BrennanPatrick J Tighe
Mar 24, 2021·The Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery·Lydia R MaurerHaytham M A Kaafarani
Jun 30, 2021·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·Daniel GonçalvesRafael S Costa
Jul 17, 2021·Surgical Infections·Saskya ByerlyHaytham M A Kaafarani

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