National risk prediction model for perioperative mortality in non-cardiac surgery

The British Journal of Surgery
D CampbellT G Short

Abstract

Many multivariable models to calculate mortality risk after surgery are limited by insufficient sample size at development or by application to cohorts distinct from derivation populations. The aims of this study were to validate the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) for a New Zealand population and to develop an extended NZRISK model to calculate 1-month, 1-year and 2-year mortality after non-cardiac surgery. Data from the New Zealand National Minimum Data Set for patients having surgery between January 2013 and December 2014 were used to validate SORT. A random 75 per cent split of the data was used to develop the NZRISK model, which was validated in the other 25 per cent of the data set. External validation of SORT in the 360 140 patients who underwent surgery in the study period showed good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) value of 0·906) but poor calibration (McFadden's pseudo-R2 0·137, calibration slope 5·32), indicating it was invalid in this national surgical population. Internal validation of the NZRISK model, which incorporates sex and ethnicity in addition to the variables used in SORT for 1-month, 1-year and 2-year outcomes, demonstrated excellent discrimination with AUR...Continue Reading

References

May 25, 2010·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Suneetha Ramani MoonesingheMichael Patrick William Grocott
Sep 25, 2012·Lancet·Rupert M PearseUNKNOWN European Surgical Outcomes Study (EuSOS) group for the Trials groups of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine and
May 23, 2014·BMJ Open·Sun Ha JeeMark Woodward
Jun 6, 2014·European Heart Journal·Ewout W Steyerberg, Yvonne Vergouwe
Nov 13, 2014·The British Journal of Surgery·K L ProtopapaS R Moonesinghe
Dec 17, 2015·Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia = Journal Canadien D'anesthésie·Duminda N Wijeysundera
Nov 2, 2016·British Journal of Anaesthesia·UNKNOWN International Surgical Outcomes Study group

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Citations

Nov 21, 2019·The British Journal of Surgery·G Pellino
Jul 31, 2020·Anaesthesia and Intensive Care·Jennifer R ReillyPaul S Myles
Jan 12, 2021·European Journal of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery : the Official Journal of the European Society for Vascular Surgery·Jee Young KimDoug Campbell
Mar 21, 2021·Best Practice & Research. Clinical Anaesthesiology·Selin Kivrak, Guy Haller
Jul 30, 2021·Brazilian Journal of Anesthesiology·Sávio Cavalcante PassosLuciana Paula Cadore Stefani

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