New metro system and active travel: A natural experiment

Environment International
Guibo SunHui Lin

Abstract

We used the first metro system in a developing city as a natural experiment to investigate the causal inference in the new metro's impact on modal shift and active travel. The treatment group was formed by residents from neighbourhoods located within the 800-m walking distance to new metro stations. The first control group was formed by residents lived 1.6 km away from and outside of walking distance to the nearest station, and the second was 5 km away and outside of cycling distance. The groups were determined by local transit-oriented planning practice and empirical studies on active travel. Of the 5627 participants who had finished a baseline travel behaviour survey before new metro launched, 1770 returned and completed the follow-up survey a year after the metro's operation, which consists of 833 cohort participants in the treatment group and 937 in the two types of control groups. We used a difference-in-difference method to make before and after comparisons of travel behaviour changes between treatment and control groups. Our longitudinal data analyses revealed diverse travel behaviour changes. In general, people who used to take bus have adopted metro. The average metro usage was 30.9 (28.8-33.3) minutes daily for work t...Continue Reading

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