Nonlinear dynamics for the spread of pathogenesis of COVID-19 pandemic.

Journal of Infection and Public Health
Sunil Kumar SharmaRashmi Bhardwaj

Abstract

Coronaviruses did not invite attention at a global level and responsiveness until the series of 2003-SARS contagion followed by year-2012 MERS plus, most recently, 2019-nCoV eruptions. SARS-CoV &MERS-CoV are painstaking, extremely pathogenic. Also, very evidently, both have been communicated from bats to palm-civets & dromedary camels and further transferred ultimately to humans. No country has been deprived of this viral genomic contamination wherever populaces reside and are interconnected. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of this viral genome. The analysis aids the study of the outbreak of this Virus towards the other parts of the continent and the world. The parameters such as population mobility, natural history, epidemiological characteristics, and the transmission mechanism towards viral spread when considered into crowd dynamism result in improved estimation. This article studies the impact of time on the amount of susceptible, exposed, the infected person taking into account asymptomatic and symptomatic ones; recovered i.e., removed from this model and the virus particles existing in the open surfaces. The transition from stable phase to attractor phase happens after...Continue Reading

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