Observations on surgical demand time series: detection and resolution of holiday variance

Anesthesiology
Ian C MooreDavid J Thomson

Abstract

Surgical scheduling is complicated by both naturally occurring and human-induced variability in the demand for surgical services. Surgical demand time series are decomposed into periodic, lagged, and linear trends with frequent occurrences of nonconstant variations in mean and variance. The authors used time series methods to model surgical demand time series in order to improve the scheduling of scarce surgical resources. With institutional approval, the authors studied 47,752 surgeries undertaken at a large academic medical center. They initially extracted periodic information from the time series using two frequency domain techniques: the harmonic F test and the multitaper test. They subsequently extracted lagged (correlated) behavior using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. Finally, they used moving variance filters on the residuals to identify variance in the time series that coincided with major US holidays. Linear terms such as periodic cycles, trends, and daily and weekly lags explained 80% of the variance in the raw time series. In the residuals, the authors used moving variance filters to detect nonlinear variance artifacts that correlated with surgical activities on specific US holidays. After...Continue Reading

Citations

Nov 26, 2010·Health Care Management Science·Francesca Guerriero, Rosita Guido
Sep 19, 2009·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Franklin DexterJohannes Ledolter
Jul 9, 2014·Proceedings. Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·D J Thomson, C L Haley
Mar 4, 2015·Journal of Medical Systems·Joseph R StarnesJesse M Ehrenfeld
Dec 15, 2017·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Anthony M H HoIan Gilron
Nov 5, 2014·Health Care Management Science·Monica C Villarreal, Pinar Keskinocak
Feb 3, 2019·Israel Journal of Health Policy Research·Rachel Yaffa Zisk-RonyYoram G Weiss
Oct 11, 2020·BMC Health Services Research·Katie J SheehanUNKNOWN Canadian Collaborative Study on Hip Fractures
Nov 13, 2020·Bulletin of the World Health Organization·Vikas N O'Reilly-ShahCraig S Jabaley

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