On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

Scientific Reports
Adolf StipsX San Liang

Abstract

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes.

References

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Citations

Jan 20, 2018·Physical Review. E·Luca FaesDaniele Marinazzo
May 1, 2020·Chemistry : a European Journal·Balaji B MulikBhaskar R Sathe
Jan 17, 2019·Chemphyschem : a European Journal of Chemical Physics and Physical Chemistry·Plaban Jyoti SarmaRamesh Chandra Deka
Aug 10, 2020·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Awais ShakoorMuhammad Mohsin Altaf
Dec 15, 2016·Physical Review. E·X San Liang
Dec 16, 2020·Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics : PCCP·Plaban J SarmaRamesh Ch Deka
Oct 29, 2020·Environment, Development and Sustainability·Subodh Chandra PalManisa Shit
Apr 4, 2021·Entropy·X San Liang, Xiu-Qun Yang
May 27, 2019·PeerJ. Computer Science·Aditi Kathpalia, Nithin Nagaraj
Sep 11, 2021·Scientific Reports·X San LiangFeng Zhang

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Software Mentioned

MATLAB
multispatialCCM
lmtest
R
KNMI Climate Explorer
GMTA
MSBVAR

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