On the distributions of bootstrap support and posterior distributions for a star tree

Systematic Biology
Edward Susko

Abstract

Several authors have recently noted that when data are generated from a star topology, posterior probabilities can often be very large, even with arbitrarily large sequence lengths. This is counter to intuition, which suggests convergence to the limit of equal probability for each topology. Here the limiting distributions of bootstrap support and posterior probabilities are obtained for a four-taxon star tree. Theoretical results are given, providing confirmation that this counterintuitive phenomenon holds for both posterior probabilities and bootstrap support. For large samples the limiting results for posterior probabilities are the same regardless of the prior. With equal-length terminal edges, the limiting distribution is similar but not the same across different choices for the lengths of the edges. In contrast to previous results, the case of unequal lengths of terminal edges is considered. With two long edges, the posterior probability of the tree with long edges together tends to be much larger. Using the neighbor-joining algorithm, with equal edge lengths, the distribution of bootstrap support tends to be qualitatively comparable to posterior probabilities. As with posterior probabilities, when two of the edges are lon...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 30, 2011·Molecular Biology and Evolution·Sudhir KumarKoichiro Tamura
Oct 15, 2008·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Ziheng Yang
Aug 19, 2010·BMC Evolutionary Biology·Vladimir MakarenkovPierre Legendre
Dec 17, 2009·PloS One·Bryan Kolaczkowski, Joseph W Thornton
May 23, 2015·Systematic Biology·Michael J SandersonMike Steel
Jan 13, 2015·Systematic Biology·Paul O LewisDavid L Swofford
Nov 30, 2014·Systematic Biology·Edward Susko
Apr 1, 2009·Systematic Biology·Edward Susko
Feb 13, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ziheng Yang, Tianqi Zhu
Jun 23, 2018·Genome Biology and Evolution·Naoko Takezaki
Nov 26, 2009·Natural Product Reports·Imke Schmitt, F Keith Barker
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Dec 5, 2017·Global Health Research and Policy·Brittany D RifeMattia Cf Prosperi
Sep 12, 2020·Systematic Biology·Chris Simon
Dec 31, 2020·Systematic Biology·Jun HuangZiheng Yang
Feb 3, 2021·Systematic Biology·Edward Susko, Andrew J Roger
Aug 17, 2021·Systematic Biology·Joel O WertheimMichael J Sanderson
Aug 19, 2009·Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution·Ullasa KodandaramaiahNiklas Wahlberg

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