Online accesses to medical research articles on publication predicted citations up to 15 years later

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Thomas V Perneger

Abstract

To examine whether the number of early online accesses to medical research articles predicts citations in the scientific literature over time. Cohort study of research articles published in the BMJ between January and June 1999. The number of online assesses within 1 week of publication was examined in relation to citation counts in 1999-2004, 2004-2009, and 2009-2014. The 148 included articles were accessed on average 691 times up publication, and each was cited on average 33 times in 1999-2004, 32 times in 2004-2009, and 26 times in 2009-2014. The logarithm of accesses predicted the logarithm of citations for all three subsequent periods, but the association weakened over time (correlation with citations in 1999-2004: 0.54, 2004-2009: 0.49, 2009-2014: 0.39; all P < 0.001). In addition to online accesses, the presence of an abstract also predicted more citations for all periods. Early interest in a medical research article, reflected by online accesses within a week of publication, predicts citations up to 15 years later. This strengthens the validity of online usage as a measure of the scientific merit of publications.

References

Jun 1, 2002·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Kirby P LeeLisa A Bero
Jun 1, 2002·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Michael CallahamEllen Weber
May 19, 2005·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Nikolaos A PatsopoulosJohn P A Ioannidis
May 11, 2006·PLoS Biology·Gunther Eysenbach
May 24, 2006·Pharmacotherapy·William D FiggJulian Birkinshaw
Sep 5, 2006·BMC Medical Research Methodology·Pentti NieminenMartin Schumacher
Sep 6, 2007·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Darcy A ReedScott M Wright
Feb 28, 2008·Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations : EP+I·Kristian B Filion, I Barry Pless
Jan 9, 2009·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Jean-François Etter, John Stapleton
Jan 26, 2010·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Thomas V Perneger

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