Optimal Population-Level Infection Detection Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination in a Spatial Model of Malaria Transmission

PLoS Computational Biology
Jaline GerardinEdward A Wenger

Abstract

Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies are insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time, overtreatment of uninfected individuals increases the risk of accelerating emergence of drug resistance and losing community acceptance. Local heterogeneity in transmission intensity may allow campaign strategies that respond to index cases to successfully target subpatent infections while simultaneously limiting overtreatment. While selective targeting of hotspots of transmission has been proposed as a strategy for malaria control, such targeting has not been tested in the context of malaria elimination. Using household locations, demographics, and prevalence data from a survey of four health facility catchment areas in southern Zambia and an agent-based model of malaria transmission and immunity acquisition, a transmission intensity was fit to each household based on neighborhood age-dependent malaria prevalence. A set of individual infection trajectories was constructed for every household in each catchment area, accounting for heterogeneous exposure and immunity. Various campaign strategie...Continue Reading

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Citations

Dec 29, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Philip A EckhoffAustin Burt
Mar 21, 2018·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Molly Deutsch-Feldman For The Southern Africa International Centers Of Excellence For Malaria Research
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May 27, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sophie A LeeRachel Lowe

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
MDA
MDAs
PCR
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Software Mentioned

EMOD DTK

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