Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK

Nature
Michael J TildesleyMatt J Keeling

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK provides an ideal opportunity to explore optimal control measures for an infectious disease. The presence of fine-scale spatio-temporal data for the 2001 epidemic has allowed the development of epidemiological models that are more accurate than those generally created for other epidemics and provide the opportunity to explore a variety of alternative control measures. Vaccination was not used during the 2001 epidemic; however, the recent DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) contingency plan details how reactive vaccination would be considered in future. Here, using the data from the 2001 epidemic, we consider the optimal deployment of limited vaccination capacity in a complex heterogeneous environment. We use a model of FMD spread to investigate the optimal deployment of reactive ring vaccination of cattle constrained by logistical resources. The predicted optimal ring size is highly dependent upon logistical constraints but is more robust to epidemiological parameters. Other ways of targeting reactive vaccination can significantly reduce the epidemic size; in particular, ignoring the order in which infections are reported and vaccinating those farms closest to any pre...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 6, 2012·Tropical Animal Health and Production·Sky T K PelletierGary Smith
Apr 28, 2009·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Thomas HouseMatt J Keeling
Jun 22, 2012·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Grace P S Kwong, Rob Deardon
Jun 10, 2008·Nature Reviews. Microbiology·Douglas YoungDenise Kirschner
May 7, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Matthew J SmithMichael Begon
Jan 19, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jacco WallingaMarc Lipsitch
Dec 4, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Michael J TildesleyMatt J Keeling
Jan 19, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Steven Riley
Jan 26, 2007·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Nicholas J SavillBryan T Grenfell
Feb 1, 2007·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sylvain Gandon, Troy Day
May 17, 2007·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·R F GraisB T Grenfell
Sep 2, 2008·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·David SchleyJohn Gloster
Sep 13, 2013·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Samik DattaMatt J Keeling
Mar 28, 2008·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Michael J TildesleyMatt J Keeling
Jul 3, 2009·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Michael J TildesleyMark E J Woolhouse
Jun 1, 2011·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Mark Woolhouse
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Apr 3, 2010·PLoS Computational Biology·Thomas House, Matt J Keeling
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Nov 8, 2012·PLoS Computational Biology·Michael J Tildesley, Sadie J Ryan
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May 2, 2013·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Matthew Graham, Thomas House
Nov 14, 2014·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Andrew S Azman, Justin Lessler
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Apr 7, 2015·Epidemics·Steven RileyPieter Trapman
Jul 4, 2012·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·J A BackerH J W van Roermund

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