Optimal stopping analysis of a radiation detection system to protect cities from a nuclear terrorist attack

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Michael P AtkinsonLawrence M Wein

Abstract

We formulate and analyze an optimal stopping problem concerning a terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon toward a target in a city center. In our model, the terrorist needs to travel through a two-dimensional lattice containing imperfect radiation sensors at some of the nodes, and decides at each node whether to detonate the bomb or proceed. We consider five different scenarios containing various informational structures and two different sensor array topologies: the sensors are placed randomly or they form an outer wall around the periphery of the city. We find that sensors can act as a deterrent in some cases, and that the government prefers the outer wall topology unless the sensors have a very low detection probability and the budget is tight (so that they are sparsely deployed).

References

Jul 7, 2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Edward H Kaplan, Moshe Kress
Oct 24, 2006·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Lawrence M WeinStephen E Flynn
Jul 21, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Vicki M Bier

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Citations

Nov 3, 2011·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Gary M GauklerSunil S Chirayath
Dec 22, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Xiaojun Shan, Jun Zhuang
May 3, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Michael GreenbergWarner North
Aug 26, 2018·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Duncan A Robertson

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