Optimal strategies for modeling the reciprocal of creatinine versus time in renal transplant recipients and patients with native chronic renal disease

American Journal of Kidney Diseases : the Official Journal of the National Kidney Foundation
Jeffrey C FinkMatthew R Weir

Abstract

Few studies have evaluated the least squares (LS) or alternative regression methods to estimate loss of renal function using the reciprocal of creatinine over time in renal transplant recipients or have compared their performances in patients with chronic renal insufficiency (CRI). We evaluated the LS and alternative methods using the proportion of explained variance, measured by R2, and prediction of the final creatinine level. The study included two groups of transplant recipients: (1) patients who developed graft failure (FAIL; n = 31) and (2) patients with an episode of biopsy-proven acute rejection with or without subsequent renal function loss (BXAR; n = 98) and a third group of individuals with CRI (n = 28). The LS method performed poorly in both transplant groups (mean R2 range, 0.35 to 0.44; 32% to 45% with final creatinine(actual) - creatinine(predicted) +/- 0.05 mg/dL), but better in the CRI group (mean R2, 0.57; 75% with final creatinine(actual) - creatinine(predicted) +/- 0.05). The best alternative was the two-phase regression line after exclusion of outliers, which provided similar results across the FAIL, BXAR, and CRI groups (mean R2, 0.71, 0.64, and 0.73; 81%, 84%, and 96% with final creatinine(actual) - creat...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Aug 19, 2004·Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation : Official Publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association·Giuseppe MontagninoClaudio Ponticelli
Jan 9, 2018·Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine : Peer-reviewed, Official Publication of Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine·Divya Khurana, Shilpa A Deoke
Apr 30, 2003·Transplantation·Steven ParaskevasArthur J Matas

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