Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China

Journal of Clinical Medicine
Mohammed A A Al-QanessMohamed Abd El Aziz

Abstract

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean S...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 10, 2020·Archives of Iranian Medicine·Leila Moftakhar, Mozhgan Seif
Jul 8, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Dabiah AlboaneenRaja Alyaffer
May 24, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Mohammed A A Al-QanessMohamed Abd Elaziz
May 24, 2020·Journal of Clinical Medicine·Samuel Sanchez-CaballeroElena Perez-Bernabeu
Sep 23, 2020·Scientific Reports·Ahmed T SahlolMohamed Abd Elaziz
Jul 8, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Yu-Feng ZhaoZheng-Xin Wang
Oct 13, 2020·Advances in Difference Equations·Benjamin Wacker, Jan Schlüter
Oct 15, 2020·SN Comprehensive Clinical Medicine·Lanlan FangGuixia Pan
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Dec 2, 2020·Scientific Reports·Luis Ángel HierroJosé Luis Márquez
Nov 19, 2020·Applied Soft Computing·Warda M ShabanM A Abo-Elsoud
Jan 9, 2021·PloS One·Mohamed Abd ElazizAhmed A Ewees
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