Oral and oropharyngeal cancer mortality in Brazil,1983-2017: Age-Period-Cohort analysis

Oral Diseases
Lillia Magali Estrada PereaMarco Aurélio Peres

Abstract

To estimate the effect of age, period and birth cohort on mortality from oral and oropharyngeal cancer in Brazil. Deaths due to oral and oropharyngeal cancer from 1983 to 2017 were analyzed. The effect of age, period and cohort was calculated using the Poisson regression model. Between 1983 and 2017, 142,634 deaths were recorded from oral and oropharyngeal cancer in Brazil, 54% from oropharyngeal cancer. The male sex contributed to 81% of the deaths. The average mortality rate for males was 4.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and for females, it was 0.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. There was a strong effect of age on mortality rates from oral and oropharyngeal cancer. The risk increases from 40 years-old in males and 55 years-old in females. An overall period effect was observed. The 2000 period showed the greatest risk when compared to the 1985 period in males. In women, the period of highest risk was 2010. The cohorts born between 1958-1962 had a higher risk of death. The period effect is mainly attributed to mortality from oropharyngeal cancer. Most significant values regarding the effect on the cohort groups were observed in female mortality from oral cancer.

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