Pacific Hurricane Landfalls on Mexico and SST

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Timothy Hall, Michael K Tippett

Abstract

A statistical model of Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) is developed and used to estimate hurricane landfall rates along the coast of Mexico. Mean annual landfall rates for 1971-2014 are compared to mean rates for the extremely high Northeast Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) of 2015. Over the full coast, the mean rate and 5%-95% uncertainty for Saffir-Simpson category one and higher TCs (category-1+ TCs) is 1.24 1.05 1.33 yr - 1 for 1971-2014 and 1.69 0.89 2.08 yr - 1 for 2015, a difference that is not significant. However, the increase for the most intense landfalls, category-5 TCs, is significant: 0.009 0.006 0.011 yr - 1 for 1971-2014 and 0.031 0.016 0.036 yr - 1 for 2015. The SST impact on the category-5 TC landfall rate is largest on the northern Mexican coast. The increased landfall rates for category-5 TCs is consistent with independent analysis showing that SST has its greatest impact on the formation rates of the most intense Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones. Landfall rates on Hawaii ( 0.033 0.019 0.045 yr - 1 for category-1+ TCs and 0.010 0.005 0.016 yr - 1 for category-3+ TCs for 1971-2014) show increases in the best estimates for 2015 conditions, but t...Continue Reading

References

Sep 5, 2008·Nature·James B ElsnerThomas H Jagger
Jul 16, 2016·Science·Adam H SobelAllison A Wing

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