Pandemic influenza 2009 on Réunion Island: A mild wave linked to a low reproduction number.

PLoS Currents
P RenaultL Filleul

Abstract

We studied the epidemic trend following the introduction of the pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 in the subtropical Réunion Island. There, the pandemic wave started from week 30 and lasted until week 38, with an estimated attack rate of 12.85 % for symptomatic infections. The best estimate for the initial reproduction number was Ri = 1.26 [1.08; 1.49]. It results that the herd immunity necessary to stop the epidemic growth is of the same magnitude than the attack rate. Thus, a second wave before the 2010 austral winter seems unlikely, unless a viral mutation.

References

Jan 31, 2008·American Journal of Epidemiology·Fabrice CarratAlain-Jacques Valleron
May 13, 2009·Science·Christophe FraserUNKNOWN WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration
Dec 5, 2009·CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association Journal = Journal De L'Association Medicale Canadienne·Ashleigh R TuiteDavid N Fisman

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Citations

Oct 14, 2014·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·E BrottetL Filleul
Sep 24, 2011·Revue D'épidémiologie Et De Santé Publique·N BarouxL Filleul
Jun 15, 2011·Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses·Pierre-Yves BoëlleAlain-Jacques Valleron
Oct 22, 2011·BMC Public Health·Johannes M LuteijnGordon J Marnoch
Jun 16, 2012·Oxidative Medicine and Cellular Longevity·Liliana Batista-NascimentoClaudina Rodrigues-Pousada

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