Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the southern hemisphere.

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses
Ying-Hen Hsieh

Abstract

Countries in the southern hemisphere experienced sizable epidemics of pandemic influenza H1N1 in their winter season during May-August, 2009. We make use of the Richards model to fit the publicly available epidemic data (confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) of six southern hemisphere countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa) to draw useful conclusions, in terms of its reproduction numbers and outbreak turning points, regarding the new pH1N1 virus in a typical winter influenza season. The estimates for the reproduction numbers of these six countries range from a high of 1.53 (95% CI: 1.22, 1.84) for confirmed case data of Brazil to a low of 1.16 (1.09, 1.22) for pH1N1 hospitalizations in Australia. For each country, model fits using confirmed cases, hospitalizations, or deaths data always yield similar estimates for the reproduction number. Moreover, the turning points for these closely related outbreak indicators always follow the correct chronological order, i.e., case-hospitalization-death, whenever two or more of these three indicators are available. The results suggest that the winter pH1N1 outbreaks in the southern hemisphere were similar to the earlier spring and later winter...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Dec 6, 2011·BMC Infectious Diseases·Ying-Hen HsiehUNKNOWN Center for Infectious Education and Research Team
Jul 5, 2013·PloS One·Elaine O NsoesieMadhav V Marathe
Dec 15, 2011·BMC Research Notes·Luiz C Mostaço-GuidolinSeyed M Moghadas
May 29, 2010·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Ralf DürrwaldRoland Zell
Jun 15, 2011·Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses·Pierre-Yves BoëlleAlain-Jacques Valleron
May 16, 2012·Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses·Mazyar ZiyaeyanTalat Mokhtari-Azad
Oct 15, 2014·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Ayse Humeyra BilgeOnder Ergonul
Aug 15, 2012·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Xiang-Sheng WangYong Yang
Aug 24, 2012·PloS One·Uzma Bashir AamirAlexander Klimov
Jul 9, 2016·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Jianquan Li, Yijun Lou
Apr 12, 2012·Clinical Microbiology Reviews·Vincent C C ChengKwok-Yung Yuen
Dec 17, 2010·Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz·L SchaadeG Krause
Aug 14, 2012·Indian Pediatrics·UNKNOWN Indian Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Immunization (IAPCOI)
Feb 3, 2012·International Journal of Public Health·Paul D RutterLiam J Donaldson
Feb 11, 2011·Current Infectious Disease Reports·Robert Steffen
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Aug 10, 2011·Zoonoses and Public Health·E R CampagnoloS M Ostroff
May 7, 2021·Statistics in Medicine·Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di LoroMarco Mingione

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