Parameter and State Estimation in a Cholera Model with Threshold Immunology: A Case Study of Senegal.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Beda O OgolaE O Omondi

Abstract

It is often impossible to measure all states affecting spread of a disease. In cholera, asymptomatic and cholera pathogen densities are not practically measurable despite playing a big role in its transmission. They are referred to as inaccessible states of the model and can only be manipulated using the measurable states of the given model. Our interest lies in estimating such states and the parameters catalyzing the spread. A mathematical model for cholera dynamics consisting of five compartments (susceptible, symptomatic, asymptomatic, recovered and bacteria population) with a minimum infection dose (MID) is considered. A method based on observer (from modern control theory) is proposed to estimate the state variables not accessible to measurement and the time-dependent parameters from real data of Senegal. We suppose that the total population of Senegal, the monthly reported cholera-induced deaths and the monthly recovered individuals are known inputs obtainable from real data, and the monthly new cholera cases the system output. An auxiliary system is used, an observer whose solutions converge exponentially to those of an original system and solely utilize known inputs and output of the model. Thus, the estimation of the u...Continue Reading

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