Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Global Change Biology
Melanie RuoschWilly Tinner

Abstract

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribut...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 3, 2017·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Cathy WhitlockWilly Tinner
Apr 14, 2017·Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews : MMBR·Salvador LladóPetr Baldrian
Nov 8, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Raúl Sánchez-SalgueroJuan C Linares
Dec 9, 2020·Nature Ecology & Evolution·John W WilliamsJens-Christian Svenning

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