Past, present and future distributions of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) under climate change projections

PloS One
Dilsad DagtekinH Nüzhet Dalfes

Abstract

Species distribution models can help predicting range shifts under climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the late Quaternary distribution of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) and to project future distribution ranges under different climate change scenarios using a combined palaeobotanical, phylogeographic, and modelling approach. Five species distribution modelling algorithms under the R-package `biomod2`were applied to occurrence data of Fagus orientalis to predict distributions under present, past (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 ka, Mid-Holocene, 6 ka), and future climatic conditions with different scenarios obtained from MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 global climate models. Distribution models were compared to palaeobotanical and phylogeographic evidence. Pollen data indicate northern Turkey and the western Caucasus as refugia for Oriental beech during the Last Glacial Maximum. Although pollen records are missing, molecular data point to Last Glacial Maximum refugia in northern Iran. For the mid-Holocene, pollen data support the presence of beech in the study region. Species distribution models predicted present and Last Glacial Maximum distribution of Fagus orientalis moderately well yet underestimated mid-Holocene ranges...Continue Reading

References

Mar 8, 2000·Nature·N MyersJ Kent
Mar 29, 2002·Nature·Gian-Reto WaltherFranz Bairlein
Aug 17, 2006·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Terry L Root, Stephen H Schneider
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Oct 11, 2017·Global Change Biology·Marcin K DyderskiAndrzej M Jagodziński

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
GAM

Software Mentioned

GAM
package ‘
package
WorldClim
biomod2
ESM
biomod2 ’
ArcGIS
MIROC
orientalis

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