Pattern does not equal process: what does patch occupancy really tell us about metapopulation dynamics?

The American Naturalist
Michael ClinchyAndrew T Smith

Abstract

Patch occupancy surveys are commonly used to parameterize metapopulation models. If isolation predicts patch occupancy, this is generally attributed to a balance between distance-dependent recolonization and spatially independent extinctions. We investigated whether similar patterns could also be generated by a process of spatially correlated extinctions following a unique colonization event (analogous to nonequilibrium processes in island biogeography). We simulated effects of spatially correlated extinctions on patterns of patch occupancy among pikas (Ochotona princeps) at Bodie, California, using randomly located extinction disks to represent the likely effects of predation. Our simulations produced similar patterns to those cited as evidence of balanced metapopulation dynamics. Simulations using a variety of disk sizes and patch configurations confirmed that our results are potentially applicable to a broad range of species and sites. Analyses of the observed patterns of patch occupancy at Bodie revealed little evidence of rescue effects and strong evidence that most recolonizations are ephemeral in nature. Persistence will be overestimated if static or declining patterns of patch occupancy are mistakenly attributed to dyna...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 29, 2006·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Maia MartchevaThanate Dhirasakdanon
Apr 20, 2014·PloS One·Don A DriscollMartin J Westgate
May 11, 2007·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Daniel J IsaakJason B Dunham
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Apr 15, 2006·The American Naturalist·Jonathan P RungeJames D Nichols
Jul 20, 2013·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Mackenzie R JeffressClinton W Epps
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Oct 23, 2018·Ecology·Easton R White, Andrew T Smith
Jan 26, 2020·Ecology Letters·Nathan D Van Schmidt, Steven R Beissinger
Aug 30, 2021·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Peter S RankeBernt-Erik Saether

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