PMID: 16628866Apr 25, 2006Paper

Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: the Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics

The British Journal of Social Psychology
Hartmut Blank, Steffen Nestler

Abstract

We present a new conceptualization of hindsight bias in terms of three separate hindsight components (foreseeability impressions, perceptions of necessity and memory distortions) and report three kinds of supporting evidence from an internet study (N = 101) of the unsuccessful application of the City of Leipzig to host the Olympic Games: (1) strongly diverging hindsight effects, (2) low intercorrelations between the components, and (3) dissociative effects of third variables on them. Specifically, experiencing the failure of the application as personally negative (due to a pro-application attitude and previous commitment), led to perceiving it as inevitable but also as unforeseeable. This surprising result helps to resolve seeming contradictions between previous findings (Louie, 1999; Mark et al., 2003; Tykocinski, 2001) by relating the opposite hindsight effects to differences in the nature and functions (dissonance reduction vs. coping with disappointment) of the foreseeability and necessity components.

References

Apr 28, 2000·The Journal of Applied Psychology·T A LouieK R Harich
Jun 16, 2000·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·U HoffrageG Gigerenzer
Oct 18, 2003·Memory·Jochen Musch
Oct 18, 2003·Memory·Hartmut BlankEdgar Erdfelder

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Citations

Sep 4, 2007·Cognition·Hartmut BlankVolkhard Fischer
Jan 1, 2008·Experimental Psychology·Steffen Nestler, Gernot von Collani
Mar 1, 2008·Perspectives on Psychological Science : a Journal of the Association for Psychological Science·Constantine Sedikides, Aiden P Gregg
Mar 22, 2019·Psychological Research·Aileen OeberstSteffen Nestler
Jun 16, 2021·Memory & Cognition·Julia Groß, Ute J Bayen

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