Persistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies.

Nature Communications
Paolo GazzottiMassimo Tavoni

Abstract

Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies by integrated assessment models have generated conflicting assessments. Two critical issues affecting social welfare are regional heterogeneity and inequality. These have only partly been accounted for in existing frameworks. Here, we present a benefit-cost model with more than 50 regions, calibrated upon emissions and mitigation cost data from detailed-process IAMs, and featuring country-level economic damages. We compare countries' self-interested and cooperative behaviour under a range of assumptions about socioeconomic development, climate impacts, and preferences over time and inequality. Results indicate that without international cooperation, global temperature rises, though less than in commonly-used reference scenarios. Cooperation stabilizes temperature within the Paris goals (1.80∘C [1.53∘C-2.31∘C] in 2100). Nevertheless, economic inequality persists: the ratio between top and bottom income deciles is 117% higher than without climate change impacts, even for economically optimal pathways.

References

Jun 16, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·William D Nordhaus
Oct 28, 2015·Nature·Marshall BurkeEdward Miguel
Dec 9, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Francis DennigRobert H Socolow
Jul 1, 2017·Science·Solomon HsiangTrevor Houser
May 26, 2018·Nature·Marshall BurkeNoah S Diffenbaugh
Dec 19, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Dawn L WoodardJames T Randerson
Apr 24, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Noah S Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
Jul 25, 2019·Nature Communications·Giulia RealmonteMassimo Tavoni
Jan 29, 2020·Nature Communications·Nicole GlanemannAnders Levermann

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