Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China.

Cell Discovery
Huwen WangYong Cai

Abstract

An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R 0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of R t . In the first assumption, R t was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with R t  = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, R t was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (R t  = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (R t  = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were...Continue Reading

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Apr 3, 2020·Frontiers of Medicine·Min ZhouJieming Qu
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