Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries.

BMJ : British Medical Journal
Nazrul IslamMartin White

Abstract

To evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally. Natural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis. 149 countries or regions, with data on daily reported cases of covid-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and data on the physical distancing policies from the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker. Individual countries or regions that implemented one of the five physical distancing interventions (closures of schools, workplaces, and public transport, restrictions on mass gatherings and public events, and restrictions on movement (lockdowns)) between 1 January and 30 May 2020. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of covid-19 before and after implementation of physical distancing interventions, estimated using data to 30 May 2020 or 30 days post-intervention, whichever occurred first. IRRs were synthesised across countries using random effects meta-analysis. On average, implementation of any physical distancing intervention was associated with an overall reduction in covid-19 incidence of 13% (IRR 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89; n=149 countries). Closure of pu...Continue Reading

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