Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins

PloS One
Leigh G TorresRichard A Phillips

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea, to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor varia...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Jul 23, 2016·Scientific Reports·Thomas A ClayRichard A Phillips
Jun 28, 2017·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Ewan D WakefieldMark Bolton
Aug 24, 2017·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Kylie L ScalesSteven J Bograd
Jul 29, 2018·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Adrián RegosPierre Drapeau
Jan 27, 2019·Scientific Reports·Megan A CiminoEric J Terrill
Feb 15, 2021·The Journal of Animal Ecology·John FiebergTal Avgar

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
BRT

Software Mentioned

BRT
Raster
PresenceAbsence
Matlab
gbm
ArcGIS
R

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