Population risk factors for COVID-19 deaths in Nigeria at sub-national level

The Pan African Medical Journal
Zubaida HassanGulfaraz Khan

Abstract

Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 States in Nigeria. we analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 States, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 States: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9 per million population. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP (r=0.53) and to a lesser extent with TB (r=0.36) and populat...Continue Reading

Citations

Aug 3, 2021·Bulletin of the National Research Centre·Emmanuel Kagning Tsinda, Gideon Sadikiel Mmbando

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