Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment.

The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Tara M BabuMalik Peiris

Abstract

Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated. Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled. One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%-20%. A basic reproduction number (R0) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic. Populati...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 6, 2018·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Seema Jain, Erin L Murray
Mar 20, 2020·Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society·John Treanor
Aug 11, 2020·International Journal of Health Services : Planning, Administration, Evaluation·Jean-Pierre Unger
Mar 7, 2019·Nature Reviews. Immunology·Florian Krammer

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