Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark-resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

Biometrics
James E LyonsJoseph B Buchanan

Abstract

We present a novel formulation of a mark-recapture-resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state-space formulation of the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state-space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the ti...Continue Reading

References

Oct 9, 2002·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Nils Chr Stenseth, Atle Mysterud
Jun 1, 1965·Biometrika·G A SEBER
Mar 28, 2009·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·William L KendallElizabeth Flint

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