Positive Trend in the Antarctic Sea Ice Cover and Associated Changes in Surface Temperature

Journal of Climate
Josefino C ComisoKohei Cho

Abstract

The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20×106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with a newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-year period starting 1981 and the result of the analysis show a strong correlation of -0.94 during the growth season and -0.86 during the melt season. The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at -0.96 during the growth season and -0.98 during the melt season suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest...Continue Reading

References

Jun 20, 2006·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Stan Jacobs
Jun 3, 1983·Science·H J ZwallyJ C Comiso
Mar 27, 2015·Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change·Josefino C Comiso, Dorothy K Hall
Jun 3, 2015·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·John TurnerTony Phillips

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Citations

Sep 15, 2018·Annual Review of Marine Science·Ted Maksym
May 29, 2018·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·Mark C Serreze, Walter N Meier
Jan 3, 2019·Nature Communications·Guomin WangPeter van Rensch
May 8, 2020·Nature Communications·Santiago E A Pineda-MetzClaudio Richter
Dec 17, 2019·Science Advances·Eric PostMuyin Wang
May 15, 2020·PloS One·Maximiliano D GarciaMónica S Hoffmeyer
Sep 1, 2017·Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans·Cynthia Garcia-EidellLudovic Brucker
Jan 21, 2021·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Fernando Luis HillebrandJanisson Batista de Jesus
Jul 28, 2021·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·Ian Simmonds, Muyuan Li

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