PMID: 2483910Sep 1, 1989Paper

[Possibilities and limitations of the predictive risk estimates and epidemiological studies following the Chernobyl incident].

Annali di igiene : medicina preventiva e di comunità
G Trenta, A Muzzi

Abstract

The disastrous accident at the nuclear power station at the Chernobyl on 1986 (April 26) has brought attention to the estimation of radiation health effects and many "experts" were attending to the evaluation on oncogenic mortality increase among the Italian population in the next future. On the contrary at that time too few peoples were worried about the possibility of detecting such an increase. Discussion of this topic is notoriously fraught with difficulties arising from differences of opinion how to estimate low-dose risk in humans without data from direct observation. One opinion is to extrapolate from the data points obtained at relatively high doses toward zero dose (zero extrapolation theory). This permit estimates of risk to be made but, in the final analysis, no data from humans exist that show that low-level radiation exposures produce measurable biologic effects. For that this theory is more useful in radio-protection and medico-legal subjects. It is easy on a statistical basis to prove the impossibility to establish an increase in human cancer after low doses of ionizing radiation such as those received environmentally after the Chernobyl's accident. In this condition to observe the numbers of radiation-induced ca...Continue Reading

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