Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium

Scientific Reports
Raphael NeukomGabriele C Hegerl

Abstract

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions are the main tools for quantifying pre-instrumental climate variations. For some metrics such as Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, there is remarkable agreement between models and reconstructions. For other diagnostics, such as the regional response to volcanic eruptions, or hemispheric temperature differences, substantial disagreements between data and models have been reported. Here, we assess the potential sources of these discrepancies by comparing 1000-year hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on real-world paleoclimate proxies with climate-model-based pseudoproxies. These pseudoproxy experiments (PPE) indicate that noise inherent in proxy records and the unequal spatial distribution of proxy data are the key factors in explaining the data-model differences. For example, lower inter-hemispheric correlations in reconstructions can be fully accounted for by these factors in the PPE. Noise and data sampling also partly explain the reduced amplitude of the response to external forcing in reconstructions compared to models. For other metrics, such as inter-hemispheric differences, some, although reduced, discrepancy remains. Our results suggest that improving proxy...Continue Reading

References

Oct 2, 2004·Science·Hans von StorchSimon F B Tett
May 7, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Long CaoGeorge Ban-Weiss
Sep 25, 2010·Nature·David W J ThompsonPhil D Jones
Nov 20, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Sybren DrijfhoutValerie Livina
Jun 10, 2016·Nature Geoscience·Carley E Iles, Gabriele C Hegerl
Aug 26, 2016·Nature·Nerilie J AbramUNKNOWN PAGES 2k Consortium
Sep 10, 2016·Scientific Reports·Vincent JomelliUNKNOWN ASTER Team
Jul 12, 2017·Scientific Data·UNKNOWN PAGES2k Consortium
Jul 1, 2016·Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change·Christoph C RaibleMartin Wegmann

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Citations

Aug 3, 2019·Nature Geoscience·UNKNOWN PAGES 2k ConsortiumLucien von Gunten
May 15, 2020·Scientific Reports·Fernando Jaume-SanteroSancho Salcedo-Sanz

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCR

Software Mentioned

GISTEMP
TargetCor
CESM
LocalCor
NoNoise
HadCM3
piControl

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